- The National Australia Bank (NAB) foresees the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifting rates to a peak of 4.1 per cent in May
- Business conditions picked back up in January after three months of easing in late 2022, returning to a high level at 18 index points
- The rise was led by very strong trading conditions in the month; but both profitability and employment are also well above average
Expectation
- Strong prints for wages and inflation to continue in the near term
- The RBA will need to cut interest rates in 2024 to closer to neutral to support growth as inflation moderates
Overall
- Manufacturing was one of the sectors that led the improvement in business conditions, though conditions also remain strong in the retail sector.
- Suggests the economy has remained resilient to headwinds from inflation and higher interest rates
- Demand has remained elevated, likely supported by strong population growth, and concerns about global growth prospects appear to have eased
Nguồn: NAB
Posted on 15/02/2023
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